Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 143,863
2 Rhode Island 142,782
3 South Dakota 140,066
4 Utah 126,185
5 Tennessee 123,828
6 Arizona 120,451
7 Iowa 117,469
8 Wisconsin 115,524
9 Nebraska 115,220
10 South Carolina 114,782
11 Oklahoma 114,185
12 New Jersey 114,170
13 Arkansas 112,710
14 Delaware 111,284
15 Alabama 110,565
16 Indiana 110,442
17 Illinois 108,856
18 Kansas 108,140
19 New York 107,616
20 Florida 107,568
21 Idaho 106,956
22 Mississippi 106,268
23 Minnesota 106,187
24 Nevada 104,654
25 Montana 104,140
26 Georgia 103,168
27 Wyoming 103,082
28 Kentucky 102,512
29 Massachusetts 102,305
30 Texas 101,462
31 Louisiana 100,631
32 Missouri 99,721
33 Michigan 98,673
34 Connecticut 97,138
35 New Mexico 96,272
36 California 95,594
37 North Carolina 95,013
38 Alaska 94,770
39 Ohio 93,873
40 Colorado 93,841
41 Pennsylvania 93,751
42 West Virginia 89,130
43 Virginia 78,850
44 Maryland 75,836
45 New Hampshire 72,296
46 District of Columbia 69,072
47 Washington 56,406
48 Puerto Rico 53,661
49 Maine 49,827
50 Oregon 47,107
51 Vermont 38,632
52 Hawaii 24,475

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 164
2 Florida 121
3 Delaware 114
4 Maine 110
5 Oregon 105
6 Minnesota 101
7 Indiana 99
8 Pennsylvania 99
9 Rhode Island 97
10 Illinois 94
11 Utah 82
12 Michigan 78
13 Kentucky 73
14 South Carolina 73
15 Ohio 72
16 North Dakota 71
17 Arizona 70
18 Washington 70
19 New York 68
20 Maryland 66
21 Missouri 65
22 Puerto Rico 64
23 Alabama 60
24 Massachusetts 60
25 Wisconsin 55
26 Montana 54
27 West Virginia 53
28 Arkansas 52
29 Georgia 51
30 New Hampshire 51
31 New Jersey 49
32 Iowa 45
33 Kansas 43
34 Virginia 43
35 Hawaii 42
36 Vermont 42
37 District of Columbia 40
38 Wyoming 40
39 North Carolina 38
40 Texas 37
41 Nevada 36
42 Idaho 31
43 Alaska 30
44 New Mexico 27
45 Tennessee 25
46 California 24
47 Louisiana 24
48 Nebraska 17
49 Connecticut 15
50 Oklahoma 15
51 South Dakota 12
52 Mississippi 11

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,936
2 New York 2,703
3 Massachusetts 2,585
4 Rhode Island 2,552
5 Mississippi 2,445
6 Arizona 2,411
7 Connecticut 2,303
8 Alabama 2,266
9 Louisiana 2,263
10 South Dakota 2,261
11 Pennsylvania 2,115
12 North Dakota 2,016
13 Michigan 2,015
14 Indiana 2,013
15 Illinois 1,972
16 New Mexico 1,971
17 Arkansas 1,927
18 Iowa 1,912
19 Georgia 1,884
20 South Carolina 1,880
21 Nevada 1,802
22 Tennessee 1,798
23 Texas 1,772
24 Oklahoma 1,748
25 Kansas 1,747
26 Delaware 1,703
27 Florida 1,698
28 Ohio 1,686
29 District of Columbia 1,596
30 California 1,592
31 Missouri 1,559
32 West Virginia 1,546
33 Kentucky 1,538
34 Montana 1,499
35 Maryland 1,489
36 Wisconsin 1,330
37 Minnesota 1,323
38 Virginia 1,301
39 North Carolina 1,237
40 Wyoming 1,231
41 Nebraska 1,228
42 Idaho 1,165
43 Colorado 1,154
44 New Hampshire 988
45 Puerto Rico 774
46 Washington 754
47 Utah 714
48 Oregon 626
49 Maine 610
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 348

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 4
2 Alabama 2
3 Arizona 2
4 Delaware 2
5 Georgia 2
6 Illinois 2
7 Maryland 2
8 Minnesota 2
9 Ohio 2
10 Colorado 1
11 Florida 1
12 Indiana 1
13 Iowa 1
14 Kentucky 1
15 Massachusetts 1
16 Nebraska 1
17 New Jersey 1
18 New York 1
19 Pennsylvania 1
20 Puerto Rico 1
21 Texas 1
22 Utah 1
23 Virginia 1
24 Alaska 0
25 Arkansas 0
26 California 0
27 Connecticut 0
28 District of Columbia 0
29 Hawaii 0
30 Idaho 0
31 Kansas 0
32 Louisiana 0
33 Maine 0
34 Mississippi 0
35 Missouri 0
36 Montana 0
37 Nevada 0
38 New Hampshire 0
39 New Mexico 0
40 North Carolina 0
41 North Dakota 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Carolina 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 385,074 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,141 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,134 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,161 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,705 189 93
Richland South Carolina 113,102 974 69
York South Carolina 112,709 998 68
Orange California 85,539 2245 28
Pierce Washington 59,005 2846 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Hancock Georgia 7,922 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,590 1829 41
York South Carolina 1,367 2090 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,363 2094 33
Richland South Carolina 1,361 2098 33
Pierce Washington 748 2738 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons